proposition
Réduire à 60 % la déductibilité des intérêts d’emprunt en cas de LBO.François Bayrou, Des paroles et des actes, France 2, 08/03/2012
chiffrage
Le gain engendré par la réduction de la déductibilité des intérêts d’emprunt en cas de LBO est estimé à 274 millions d’euros par an.
Cette estimation médiane considère l’hypothèse d’une durée moyenne de LBO de 3 à 4 ans.
Voir le détail du chiffrage
Détail du chiffrage
SOURCES
- European buyouts watch Q4 2011 (European buyout market defies Eurozone fears), Ernst & Young
- AFIC 2005
COMMENTAIRE DU CHIFFRAGE
Les LBO (« leverage bail out ») ont représenté 14 Mds€ en 2011, selon Ernst & Young. En estimant que ces 14 Mds€ ont été intégralement financés sous forme de dette, la charge d'intérêt est donc de 4,2 % (en supposant que ces emprunts supportent un taux d'intérêt proche de celui de la moyenne sur les 5 dernières années de l'Etat français) x 14 Mds€ = 588 M€.
La mesure reviendrait à imposer 40 % des intérêts d’emprunt, soit 235 M€ (588 M€ x 40 %). Avec un taux d'Impôt sur les Sociétés de 33,33 %, ceci donne un gain sur les recettes fiscales d'un peu plus de 78 M€ par année de LBO. Or on peut estimer que la durée moyenne d'un LBO est d'environ 3-4 ans[1]. Au total, la mesure rapporte donc environ plus de 274 M€ en hypothèse médiane. L'hypothèse basse correspond à une hypothèse de détention de 2 ans et l'hypothèse haute à une hypothèse de détention de 7 ans.[1] AFIC sur le capital investissement.
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